Re: GLUG: GLUG lotto hitths and myths

[Soren Aalto <soren@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Philip Machanic wrote: 
> At 04:04 +0200 1/4/00, Carl Templin wrote:
> >So, the total number of choices (only one of which is the big one) is
> >
> >          (49 x 49 x 47 x 46 x 45 x 44)/(6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1)
> >
> >No Einsteinian theory nor talking parrot can change this fact.
> >
> >The above value is between 14 and 15 million.
> [...]
> >ps  this friendly letter might sound a trifle snotty.......thats because
> >I feel a trifle snotty.
> 
> Actually 13983816, just below 14-million ... since you want to be snotty :)
> Try homeopathy.
> 
> For those who want to brute-force it, that number of tickets would cost you
> R34959540, just under R35-million. Unfortunately the pool does _not_
> jackpot indefinitely, but the unpaid winnings are pooled into the smaller
> wins after a few weeks. Maybe they have some people in charge who can think
> these things through?
> 
> Now, what are the probabilities of 5 (or was it 6?) people winning as
> happened the first time, out of significantly fewer tickets than this sold?
> 
> I am curious as to whether people trying "systems" actually reduce their
> chances because the thing _is_ random. Any combination should be equally
> likely so if 50% (for example) of the players are working to a "system"
> that biases the entries one way or another, it could well reduce the number
> of winners.

When I was a grad student at UBC in Canada, there was 
a guy in applied maths who spotted some bugger up in
the first rollout of the (in)famous "Lotto 6/49".  I
don't recall what it was -- I kind of despised Lotto
Fever during that stage of my existence.

Anyway, this guy actually borrowed money on his bond
and bought lots of tickets, playing numbers that his
computer program spit out for him.  The actual numbers
were sort of frightening, like he played about $10,000
worth of tickets...and ended up winning something like
$50-60,000, payed off his house (IIRC).

Philip - ask your colleague shaze@ if remembers a
nefarious character by the name of Rob Cheung who
was studying at IMS @ UBC (probably before his time,
but Rob had the potential to be there for a long
time...)

--
Soren Aalto <soren@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Internet guy, University of Zululand 
If Bill Gates had a nickle for every time
Windows crashed...oh wait, he does.