Re: GLUG: GLUG lotto hitths and myths

["Bernie Amler" <bernie@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

I've been watching this as well, but have not had the "guts" to stir as you
have.
I only wish more people would "study" stats and gaming theory.
It's the same old thing.   Ask someone the odds of a coin coming down tails
after it has come down heads 10 times in a row and watch them reach for
their calculators.
Of course if it is a normal coin, heads on one side and tails on the other,
and the coin is not weighted in any way, the answer remains 1 in 2, 0.5, or
50% depending on how you wish to express it.
A coin has NO MEMORY of previous events.

Regards,
Bernie Amler

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----- Original Message -----
From: Carl Templin <ctemplin@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <glug@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, April 01, 2000 4:04 AM
Subject: GLUG: GLUG lotto hitths and myths


> Gentlemen,
> I have read all the lotto letters so far which think that if they were
smart
> enough, then they could predict what numbers would come up in  the winning
> set of 6.
> As one contributor hinted, if the system was fixed so that a prechosen set
of
> numbers could be made to reappear (perhaps by telekinesis effected by a
> person who could watch the drawers balls dropping) and you could torture
the
> person who would actually make it reappear till he/she told you the
> numbers....well then,, maybe.
>
> In short, I was amazed that anyone could actually think there is a way.
Try
> this: Take a new deck of cards and without you watching let 10 people each
> have a go at shuffling.  Now, using whatever theory or religion you wish,
> guess what the card on the top of the deck is.  Your chances are 1 in 52.
> No cerebral gymnastics can change those odds.
> Now take away 3 known cards to leave a deck of 49 (same as the lotto).
Next ,
> guess what the top six cards are (after alot of people have shuffled
without
> looking at the cards and you not watching the proceedings).  Can anyone
> believe that there is a way of actually predicting .......please!
>
> In order to make the problem a bit graphic, allow me to show you how,
without
> taxing the brain, to calculate the odds of guessing six out of 49:
>
> There are 49 ways of guessing a first number (or card).
> For each of these there are 48 ways of choosing/guessing a second
different
> number.
> This means that there are  49 x 48 ways of guessing  a first AND second.
>
> There are 47 choices for a third number, 46 for a fourth, 45 for a fifth
and
> 44 choices for a sixth.
>
> This means that there are 49 x 48 x 47 x 46 x 45 x 44 ways of choosing
> 6 out of 49 IN A PARTICULAR ORDER.
>
> Any six cards can be ordered in  6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 ways, using the
same
> reasoning as above. That is, there are that many orders in which any given
> six numbers (or cards) can occur.
>
> So, the total number of choices (only one of which is the big one) is
>
>           (49 x 49 x 47 x 46 x 45 x 44)/(6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1)
>
> No Einsteinian theory nor talking parrot can change this fact.
>
> The above value is between 14 and 15 million.
> Imagine 14 to 15 square metres of fabric woven out of thread 1 mm wide.
> Each square metre would consist of 1000 x 1000 little squares of thread.
>
> Now imagine that your 15 square meters are layed out on the ground and
> have the gardener mark one weeny 1 mm square of thread on the underside
> of the cloth, without you watching.  Now throw a dart in the air and try
to
> scientifically guide this dart
> to the secretly marked square.  If you hit it you win.
>
> Here endeth my wisdom for the day
> Cheers young fellas,
> Carl Templin
>
> ps  this friendly letter might sound a trifle snotty.......thats because I
feel a
> trifle snotty.
>
>
>
>
>
> 0
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